I’m not going to spill all his secrets, because Pete Tiernan’s site, bracketscience.com, is worth the price of admission.
I will tell you though, that of Tiernan’s 10 bracket projections, the University of Louisville makes the championship game in five of them, and wins the national title in three.
Pete puts together the following brackets (all based on different but well-explained strategies): From the gut, Upset-Toss up rules, Final Four/Champion rules, Combined performance against seed expectation rules, Factors performance against seed expectation, Tempo-free pythagorean, Pythagorean plus coach performance against seed expectation, Game play attributes, Seed match-ups and Crazy Pete’s Upset Special.
Not only does he explain what each of these are, he gives you the “risk” level and historical performance (percentile ranking) of each bracket in past years’ ESPN bracket challenges.
Pretty cool stuff, plus a downloadable Excel spread sheet of every stat for every team in the field.