Crunching some Reds numbers

My colleague, Rick Bozich, jinxed the Cincinnati Reds with his talk of magic numbers a couple of days ago. No question about it. Since that day, the Reds have lost back-to-back games in San Francisco by a combined score of 27-7.

But the Reds have bigger issues than Dr. Bo to deal with.

They have feasted against non-contenders this season, but against teams currently first or second in the NL Divisional standings, the story has been much different. Against those teams — Atlanta, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Diego and San Francisco — the Reds are 12-24 on the season, with those 24 losses representing just under half of their total (54).

The Reds have been outscored 204-138 in those games. They’re 10-12 against those teams at home and 2-12 on the road.

The records and scores

vs. Atlanta 2-3 (Atl 24, Cin 24)
vs. Philadelphia 2-5 (Phi 27, Cin 30)
vs. St. Louis 5-10 (StL 86, Cin 53)
vs. San Diego 1-2 (SD 19, Cin 9)
vs. San Francisco (SF 45, Cin 25)

The good news for Cincinnati is that after today’s series finale in San Francisco, it has 35 games left.

Of those 35 games, only SIX are against any of those teams in the top two of their division, a pivotal three-game series at St. Louis and three at San Diego.

That leaves 29 games against teams the Reds have done well against this season: The Cubs (10-3), Astros (7-2), Brewers (4-1), and Diamondbacks (3-0), plus a four-game series at Colorado (2-1). Of those 29, NINE are against Milwaukee.

What’s it all mean? I’m saying the Reds chances to make the playoffs are good. But their chances to do anything once there are not.


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