Spread formation: Tracking UK-U of L lines

Kentucky is a 3-point favorite in its annual rivalry game against Louisville as of Friday at noon (all odds information used here will be from covers.com).

Since the resumption of the U of L series, it will be the seventh time in 17 meetings that the Wildcats have been favored, and just the third time in the past 10 meetings.

When UK won as a favorite last season, it was the first time they’d beaten U of L as the favorite since Tim Couch lit up the Cardinals for a 68-34 win in the opener in Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in 1998. UK has won just three of the six previous games in which it has been favored over Louisville, and has covered the spread as the game’s winner only twice — in 1998 and in the modern series opener in 1994.

Other notes on the spread:

— Average spread in the modern series (including this year): 7.8 points
— Louisville has been favored 10 times by an average of 9.1 points (it won six of those games, and covered in four of them)
— Kentucky has been favored 6 times by an average of 6.5 points (it won three of those games, and covered twice)
— The favorite has won just 5 of the past 10 meetings and 9 of the 16 overall.

Year-by-year spread and results

Year Favorite Result
2009 UK by 12.5 UK 31-27
2008 UL by 3.5 UK 27-2
2007 UL by 4.5 UK 40-34
2006 UL by 23 UL 59-28
2005 UL by 23.5 UL 31-24
2004 UL by 10.5 UL 28-0
2003 UK by 5.5 UL 40-24
2002 UL by 12.5 UK 22-17
2001 UL by 3.5 UL 36-10
2000 UK by 5.5 UL 40-34
1999 UL by 3 UL 56-28
1998 UK by 10 UK 68-34
1997 UL by 3 UK 38-24
1996 UK by 2 UL 38-14
1995 UL by 4 UL 13-10
1994 UK by 3.5 UK 20-14

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